Thursday 7 August 2008

Statistical Trials

As I've mentioned over at TTD, I recently finished MPC1 (the first A Level module) and I enjoyed it greatly, though some things I have a less than complete handle on (any question that begins "Determine the condition on k" for example), and I fear my algebra isn't quite up to scratch. But I am struggling a bit with S1. I find it frustrating that the textbook does not try to provide proofs for several equations and that clear, detailed explanations are hard to come by. I also find reading values off distribution tables a pain. I simply don't have the feeling that I am understanding what is going on.

Here are my thoughts on the binomial distribution: this is a distribution of probabilities, when there are only two possible outcomes, which are independent, with a fixed number of trials and a fixed probability. Like tossing a coin x number of times. I can't think, off the top of my head, of lots of applications of this. Binomial distributions are determined by combinations of probabilities (ie if you are looking for the probability of finding x widgets that fails a test if 20% of widgets fail and you have a box of 200 widgets and you pick out 35, then it is 200C35 because you could easily have loads of different ways of finding them, ie the first is ok, and the next isn't, etc etc). The 200C35 would then be multiplied by the probabilities of success and failure, each raised to the power of x and 1-x.

Or something.

The normal distribution though is for continuous data and is based around a probability curve with the peak being the mean. But then you sort of turn it into a standard normal distribution with mean 0 to gauge the probabilities more easily. I'm not really sure of the logic of this to be honest. The normal distribution gives you probabilities of things like heights across a population. The curve is deviation from the mean - standard deviation, then, yes? Or not? So what is it we're really looking for on this curve?

2 comments:

Wolfie said...

Damn I was looking forward to some hard-on, full throttle Maths! So where is it?

Bill Haydon said...

I only do softcore maths!! I don't like hardcore.